Global Green USA and Green Cross International present

Facing International Freshwater Conflict:
Common Issues and Strategies in
Three Regions of the World

Exploring Freshwater Conflict Resolution Processes in the Western United States, South America, and the Middle East

October 17, 1997

Participants (in order of appearance on transcript):

  • Matthew Petersen Executive Director, Global Green USA
  • Michael Jackson Radio journalist, moderator
  • President Mikhail Gorbachev President, Green Cross International
  • Congressman George Miller Ranking Minority Member, House Resources Committee (D-CA)
  • Bertrand Charrier Executive Director, Green Cross International
  • John "Woody" Wodraska General Manager, Metropolitan Water District of Southern California
  • Peter Gleick President, Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment, and Security
  • Oscar Natale National Institute of Water and the Environment, Government of Argentina
  • Lester Snow Executive Director, CalFed Bay-Delta Program
  • Peter Moyle Professor of Wildlife, Fish and Conservation Biology, University of California at Davis
  • Thomas Graff Senior Attorney, Environmental Defense Fund
  • Larry Farwell Water Use Strategist, SynAqua LLC
  • David Kennedy Director, California Department of Water Resources
  • David Freeman General Manager, Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (not appearing on transcript)

    Pavel Palazchenko provided simultaneous translation to
    President Gorbachev.

Transcript of Symposium

Matthew Petersen: We are the American affiliate of Green Cross International, which was founded and is led by President Mikhail Gorbachev, who will be with us in a few moments.

Today we are here to talk about water conflict, the newest program for Global Green and Green Cross International, one which we hope will be effective in all its efforts. Green Cross International is based in Geneva. We have our Executive Director, Bertrand Charrier, from Geneva here today.

First I'd also like to give a few thank yous to Cole Freitas and SAMDA, Woody Wodraska and MWD, the Metropolitan Water District, and David Freeman in the Department of Water and Power for making this day possible, especially Mr. Freeman, Frank Salas and the folks here at the Department of Water and Power for hosting us for this wonderful event and all of you who work for the DWP for being with us. I would also like to give a thanks to David Behar and Mary Luevano, who worked so hard to pull this program together.

Now, it gives me great pleasure to announce to joining us, David Freeman, Congressman George Miller, and President Mikhail Gorbachev.

Now, my final words. It gives me great pleasure to introduce to you a gentleman who was just awarded as the best talk show host of the year and also one of our local favorites, on KABC, Mr. Michael Jackson.

Michael Jackson: I'm honored to be here today as your
moderator for a distinguished panel. Very soon we're going to
hear from President Gorbachev to begin our discussion of an
overview of global freshwater issues. Then we are going to
hear from Congressman George Miller, followed by remarks on
the Green Cross International program by Bertrand Charrier and
at that point we are going to pose some questions for our
panel to consider before we proceed to panelist presentations
on the three regions of the world on which we're going to be
focusing for the second half of the panel. Now after these
presentations and a discussion, we'll have a question and
answer period from the audience, using the sheets supplied
with your programs.
As you'll no doubt hear more than once today, many
international observers believe that water scarcity and water
quality will be the most important and contentious resource
issues of the coming century, if not the coming millennium.
In California, of course, we think we know all about water.
Mark Twain put it well. He said, "In the West whiskey is for
drinking, and water is for fighting." Elsewhere in the world,
water issues are literally a matter of life and death.

President Gorbachev asked Global Green USA to convene today's
program in order to bring together regional, national and
international experts on this precious resource, to share
experiences and ideas about efforts in at least three regions
of the world to solve developing and long simmering conflicts
over fresh water. And he has another motivation: President
Gorbachev has been asked to help lead efforts in the Middle
East and in South America to find solutions to thorny water
issues, which are so important in these regions. Hence our
focus in this panel on the Middle East and the Pilcomayo River
Basin region of South America, as well as California. We hope
today's discussion will provide President Gorbachev and the
staff of Green Cross International, who are here with us
today, with at least a few nuggets of wisdom and perhaps some
ideas for new partnerships and approaches in their
international work. And who knows, perhaps we here in
California may learn a few things as well.
And now sir, with our gratitude for his international
leadership on these vital issues, may we hear from President
Gorbachev.

President Mikhail Gorbachev (in simultaneous translation):
Thank you. Good afternoon, and I would like to salute all of
you very warmly. It's very good that you have come here to
discuss this matter that is very important to all of us. In
my political career, in the Soviet Union, I had to address the
problems of water scarcity of water supply in a number of
regions of the former Soviet Union. In Central Asia there are
two rivers, Syrdarja and Amudarja, that flow through four
republics of the former Soviet Union and agriculture there
depends very much on irrigation. This region is an area where
a lot of rice was grown and is still being grown, but it is
not just agriculture there. The region is urbanizing and so
water is needed for the people and there is a lot of people
living there. The population there is increasing.

When we lived behind the Iron Curtain, you were now quite
aware of how dramatic and acute that problem was in those
republics of the Soviet Union, but actually it was so bad at
some point that it came to blows between the peasants in their
fight for water allocations. So when I was a member of the
Soviet Politburo under Brezhnev and I was responsible for
agriculture, I was in charge of the commission that allocated
water quotas to those different republics and that tried to
settle those conflicts, so I do know how difficult this
problem is.
What often happened is, let's say, during the daytime an
agreement is reached and quotas are allocated and the machines
are adjusted for this allocation, but then overnight the
peasants have changed it and the peasants have readjusted the
allocations.

Because this is a problem that affects people's lives, their
everyday life, their families and we have now seen that we
have many shortages, many scarcities, but the water scarcity
is the number one problem, the number one deficit. After all,
even the human body consists of mostly water -- 75% of it is
water. So we can't get away from that fact. And food, of
course, food production depends on irrigation. So fresh water
is a problem that affects just about every aspect.

Green Cross International is an emerging global environmental
organization. We have looked at the number of environmental
problems, but our contacts and discussions with people in
various countries -- and with environmentalists and
governments in various countries -- have indicated to us that
this is one of the problems on which we really should focus,
the problem of fresh water supply.

To address this problem on an international scale, we have
recently held a discussion, a seminar in Geneva at our Green
Cross International headquarters that brought together the
best international experts to discuss the problems of fresh
water. We are very pleased that the World Bank has shown real
interest and a real interest in supporting our project for
fresh water.
This project is now one of the important projects of our
international organization. The water shortage is a global
problem, but the situation looks different in different
regions. There are some regions where there is even a surplus
of water. But there are some states and some regions, some
countries and some regions where the water problem is truly
awesome, truly monumental.

So this is a problem of which there should be global
awareness. On the other hand there should be a lot of local
and national action and also action at the regional level
where the water problem is between different states or
countries. The fact that you have gathered here in this
auditorium, the fact that these experts have come here to
address this problem is something that I very much welcome. I
would like to salute the initiative of Global Green USA, which
is the affiliate of Green Cross International, and I very much
hope that this initiative will get off to a good start here
and that perhaps we will be able, working together with you,
to develop a model for the resolution of water issues, a model
that we will be able to use in other countries and in other
situations. We have asked your congressman, Congressman
Miller, whom it so happens I know quite well, because we first
met in Moscow, in 1985, when I was just beginning as Soviet
leader. So Mr. Miller, my old friend, will be offering his
report, after which the Executive Director of the
International Green Cross, Bertrand Charrier, will present to
you a report on our project, on what we intend to do. And
then we hope for a good discussion that will be moderated by
Mr. Michael Jackson, Michael Jackson the second, perhaps.
[Laughter]
Very good. I'm now asking Congressman Miller to speak.

Congressman George Miller: Thank you very much, President
Gorbachev, for Green Cross International and to Global Green
USA for convening this forum and for focusing our attention on
a worldwide problem that may do more to define winners and
losers if it's not resolved in the proper fashion.

My fellow panelists and ladies and gentlemen in the audience,
I'm pleased to be in this program today. Over the past
century, much of the world has struck a Faustian bargain.
They developed natural resources to promote economic growth
with little consideration for long-term environmental damage
or remediation. Nowhere has the trade-off been more dramatic
or more cataclysmic than in the case of water development in
the American West. In California, as in the Aral Sea, or the
forests of Indonesia, or the polluted rivers of Eastern
Europe, we are paying a huge environmental price for short-
term economic growth. Correcting those past errors will not
be cheap or without political risk. Because of our rapid
economic development, we here in the United States committed
serious resource management blunders earlier than many other
nations, but we also have been among the first to recognize
the errors of the past and to develop, if haltingly,
innovative solutions. Western water policy provides a
textbook example. The great dams and reservoirs and the
waterways planned over the last century were supposed to
reconfigure nature for 500 years. Now, in the Pacific
Northwest, in Utah, in Arizona, North Dakota and California,
we are confronting the urgent need to redefine the mission of
these projects. The goal of the great water planners in arid
California was to make the deserts bloom and to permit the
cities to flourish. The decisions to build the great dams and
canals were made by farsighted, powerful and wealthy interests
who spent more time asking "how," than "should we?" We built
the dams when destruction of wetlands and fisheries were
ignored. We became addicted to subsidies in an era when long-
term deficits and inflation were not considered. We allowed
irrigation of low quality lands without adequate drainage and
we allowed urban growth that within a generation would push
the population of our water-short state to nearly that of
France and Britain. We created, in short, a population, an
economy, and a political system that thirsted for water and
that has created a host of economic and environmental
problems.
On the cusp of the twenty-first century, we are compelled to
modernize water policy conceived in the twilight of the
nineteenth, when many have doubted that the political system
could exercise the bold leadership that was essential to alter
the destructive and costly habits we now have. And yet five
years ago, we did begin a unique experiment to conform water
policy to the environmental, political, and economic standards
of our own time. Interestingly, these changes were not
initiated by local officials in California, but rather were
imposed in the national government that recognized that reform
was urgent. The Central Valley Project Improvement Act
included, for the first time, environmental restoration and
fish and wildlife mitigation as fundamental purposes of a
major Federal water project. This law represents something
rather remarkable, even for those who are utterly
disinterested in water policy. The CVPIA is fundamentally a
mandate to reconfigure our most critical resource in a way
that preserves the vitality and the economy and then does
more. Unlike earlier periods, we were not basing policy solely
on what engineering, money, and political muscle can achieve.
Now we must pay attention to what science and ethics tells us
is necessary to pass a healthy, diverse and prosperous
California on to future generations.
Policy can no longer benefit those who arrive first or struck
the best bargain. Today, fisherman, hunters, Native Americans,
fish and wildlife and the environment itself must be included.
The Central Valley Project Improvement Act has established the
right of all of these parties to a seat at an expanded table
and to participate fully in the making of the fundamental
decisions about how we remedy the severe mistakes of the past
and plan for more equitable sharing of our resources in the
future. Securing such change is difficult enough within a
single heterogeneous state like California. But adding the
overlay of clashes between cultures, nations, and religions
makes solutions seem impossible unless great tenacity is
displayed in political and other leaders. And yet in
California we have begun to make great progress, in no small
part because all parties have begun to recognize the
inevitability of change, to understand that it is cheaper,
better science and smarter business to help create new
frameworks than to defend those of the old order. I am
encouraged that the progress we are making through the CalFed
process and CVPIA implementation, however halting, though
difficult it seems at times, represents the only course for
California. And it can serve as a successful model for those
in the Middle East and in South America and elsewhere where
water policy threatens both political stability and
environmental quality.

Lastly, Mr. President, may I say that it is an honor to
participate at this meeting with you. Your willingness to
venture great thought and to take enormous risk, both
politically and personal, stand as one of the great legacies
of our century. And I am tremendously gratified that you are
lending your distinguished efforts to resolving the problems
of the environment around the world and particularly that of
the supplies of fresh water. Thank you.

Gorbachev: I would like to respond. I would like to thank
Congressman Miller. I am very happy at the position that you
are taking and I very much hope that you will get support. But
of course, you will have to be prepared to answer many
questions. And now I would like to ask Bertrand Charrier to
speak on behalf of Green Cross International.

Bertrand Charrier: Thank you Mr. President, I will be glad to
be short and to be at this meeting.
Fresh water is a most important natural resource in the world.
We have to face a lot of mismanagement and even around the
world we have to face the problem of water quality and water
quantity. And this problem of scarcity of water around the
world creates a lot of tension -- regional tension. Even in
Africa, even in Asia, even in America, we have to analyze,
carefully, what are the drivers of fresh water conflict. In
the developed country the drivers are really overuse of the
water. And, often in a developing country, it is a problem of
quantity and the access. One of the programs of Green Cross
International and Global Green is to have action to prevent
water conflict.

Second one (overhead). We have to keep in mind that fresh
water is, really, a limited resource. We have to keep in mind
that 97.5 percent of the water around the world is salt water
and most of the water accessible is water frozen in a glacier
and an ice cap. Two-thirds are lost by evaporation. And
water also is frozen in an inaccessible region. Two-thirds of
water is lost by flood. So, that means at the end, just 2,500
cubic kilometer are accessible for human needs. And today,
4,400 cubic kilometers is used, and in the future we have a
margin of 6,000 cubic meters -- no more.
And we have to be faced also with the inequity of repartition.
And in some countries we have below the level of 1,000 cubic
meters per person per year and creating the stress of water
scarcity. And we see in Egypt just 30 cubic meters per year
are accessible to the people. And Israel, Jordan, live with a
lot of scarcity.

At the end the people suffer water scarcity, and just keep in
mind the last sentence, three million children die per year
from a disease due to unsafe water. The situation today is
very tough around the world, we have to keep in mind in the
future, in two generations the world population will increase
and double. We will be 10 to 11 billion people in the middle
of the next century. Food production has to be doubled -- one
of the main challenges of our generation is to prevent a
catastrophe like that. To prevent water conflict we have to
elaborate a sustainable management procedure. We have to keep
in mind fresh water is the oil of the next century and to
implement sustainable water management, we have to educate
humans about environmental needs, to give to the water the
true price, and to analyzing all environmental effects. By
regulation, by incentives, politicians can drive for better
management.
What is interesting with the CalFed process here in California
is to choose a realistic approach -- integrating environment,
integrating all partners, all stakeholders, including human
utilization, industry, agriculture. But we have not to forget
the ecosystem. If the ecosystem is not protected, water
management cannot be sustainable for the long term. But what
is beyond this sustainable management is value change. It is
necessary to change our approach between man and nature.
Without this shift, nothing very sustainable will happen. And
President, three years ago, launched an initiative, the Earth
Charter. And this Earth Charter, he says, is clearly for
this: to educate people to the necessity of value change.

And another point important to allies -- the necessity of
international law. The United Nations adopted this year an
international law of non-mitigation use of water courses.
This is a framework to deal with an international program and
international dispute. If in an industrialized country as the
United States, we can find money to solve the problem of water
scarcity, water quality, in developing countries the situation
is quite different. The World Bank estimates that for the
coming years, six hundred to eight hundred billion dollars has
to be found to allow people to have access to fresh water. It
is one of the main challenges of the future: to help
developing countries find this money from the developed
countries, but we also have to help them and to inform them
with technical transfer of our technology.
At Green Cross, around all these issues, we are working as a
mediator. That's the philosophy proposed and implemented by
President Gorbachev, as a mediator and facilitator to prevent
conflict. And we have three main domains of the work: One is
awareness building. We are working on case studies on water
conflict. We organize conferences around the world. We have
launched a Green Cross youth contest with the name "Water for
All." The second is multi-sectoral partnerships. This
morning, we had a fabulous meeting with President Gorbachev,
NGOs, and California water authorities to exchange information
on how we can all work together for an international purpose.
And in this case, we want to organize next year a conference -
- an international conference in the Middle East as one of the
focused points where the tension is so high. If water
scarcity, water distribution, water access, is not solved,
peace will never happen. Third is integrated assessment.
With the Argentina government, Green Cross International works
on the holistic approach of integrated assessment on water
used on the Pilcomayo River and we have Professor Natale here
who can answer some questions about this project.

Solutions must be elaborated altogether. Because if the
problem of water issues is solved in California, you cannot
live alone, isolated from the world. And if three million
children died every year, that is clearly unacceptable. Thank
you.

Jackson: Let me point out that prior to joining Green Cross,
Mr. Charrier worked for 15 years with Jacques Cousteau on
international environmental issues.

Mr. President, do you have time for one question, watching the
clock very carefully? Thank you sir.
Gorbachev: If I can answer a question I will.

Jackson: Picking up on what Mr. Charrier said, he said "Water
is the oil of the next century and peace will never happen."
How does water become an international diplomatic and
political issue and what is the best approach to resolving
cross-border conflicts?

Gorbachev: I think that cross-border water problems require a
very special approach. This is a matter that requires a lot of
sensitivity and this should be a very special concern. We
have spoken about the need to educate people to make people
aware of the problem of fresh water, to make all people
participants in efforts for the proper management of water
resources. And this is very important, but in addition, where
water problems become a focus of international conflict, of
cross-border conflict, this is something that the governments
need to address, but also, experts and professionals need to
address because this is a kind of conflict that requires a lot
of expertise and attention at national level.

My initial contacts with policy makers and experts on water
resources indicate that all of them emphasize the need for a
very balanced and very sensitive approach to such
international water problems and conflicts. In some regions
the tensions are so high that you have to tread very carefully
to make sure that you don't make matters worse by addressing
the conflict, addressing the problem in a wrong way.
Therefore I believe it would be very important to create
expert panels including authoritative, credible experts on
water problems to address cross-border water conflicts. And
such panels could help in the mediation efforts and there has
been a suggestion that Green Cross International and I as
President of the International Green Cross should mediate on
some of these conflicts. I believe that would be the right
approach.

Jackson: Mr. President. Thank you, and I think I can speak on
behalf of not just all the people in this auditorium, but in
this country. I don't think any of us ever thought growing up
that we would look to the President of once the Soviet Union
and say he's one of our heroes. You are, sir. Thank you very
much for all you've done.
Gorbachev: As I've already said I'll have to leave. I wanted
to leave inconspicuously; it's very difficult to do so.
[President Gorbachev departs.]

Jackson: And now, it is my pleasure to introduce the panel for
the remainder of today's discussion, in no particular order:

David Kennedy, he's been the Director of the California
Department of Water Resources since 1983, appointed
successively by Governors Dukmejian and Wilson. His
department among, many other tasks, runs the State Water
Project.

There is Tom Graff, he's an attorney with the Environmental
Defense Fund, an environmental organization headquartered in
Oakland. Mr. Graff founded EDF's California office back in
1971.

John "Woody" Wodraska is the general manager of the
Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, one of the
world's largest water purveyors.

We met, of course, Bertrand Charrier.

David Freeman is the new general manager of the Los Angeles
Department of Water and Power, our hosts today, having taken
that post just about one month ago.

There is Peter Gleick, cofounder and president of the Pacific
Institute for Studies in Development, Environment and
Security. He is one of the leading experts on environmental
security problems and international fresh water resources,
including water conflicts in the Middle East.

Then there is Lester Snow, he's the executive director of the
CafFed Bay/Delta Program, which is seeking long-term solutions
to water problems associated with the San Francisco Bay/Delta.

Oscar Natale joins us from Buenos Aries. He just arrived, I
gather, this morning. He will give us a report on jet lag. He
is the coordinator of the toxic substances and water quality
program at the National Institute of Water and the Environment
for the government of Argentina.

Peter Moyle -- He is a professor of Wildlife, Fish and
Conservation Biology at the University of California at Davis,
and Dr. Moyle is widely recognized as the foremost authority
on California fish species, particularly those in the San
Francisco Bay/Delta estuary.

And Larry Farwell is a psychologist who has been
professionally active in water conversation efforts on the
south coast and statewide since 1986. He also has advised the
governments of Canada, Spain and South Africa on water
conservation matters in recent years.

Let me start with a question and any one of you jump in if you
will. We all know the population is growing worldwide and
very much so here in California. I gather that in few years
from now, California will have a population currently of
France. But what are the implications of population growth
for water demand and water scarcity and how should we grapple
with those implications? John Wodraska.

Wodraska: I'm going to help you out here.

Jackson: Thank you.

John Wodraska: I think, certainly in California -- and we had
a chance amongst ourselves to discuss what was happening
throughout the world in other areas -- in the past we had an
orientation towards supply augmentation: "Let's build
facilities to meet the growing demands." And then I think we
realized the problems that we might have created and that we
hadn't looked at the other side of the equation on the demand
management side. And hopefully we've come back and I see the
pendulum having swung far in one direction and then pretty far
in the other direction, and it is my hope, that as we try and
deal with the future population demands really throughout the
world but most prominently in the United States and
California, it's a balancing act between demand management --
cutting back on making more efficient use of the water we use
-- but not giving up the opportunity for infrastructure where
appropriate. Particularly, in a year like this, with the
predictions of El Nino and heavy rainfall, we need to figure
out some way in California to hold on to that water when we do
get it, through storage and through conjunctive use programs,
better groundwater management and other storage options.
Jackson: I think I was thinking of Peter Gleick when I asked
President Gorbachev about international conflict. What is new
about the efforts to resolve conflicts over water in your view
and how have changes in the approach to water conflict changed
the impact of that conflict on society?

Peter Gleick: Well, first of all, one of the problems of
growing population is meeting the basic needs for water for
people. We fail today to meet the basic needs for water -- for
drinking water, for sanitation services, for billions of
people world wide. That's not going to get any easier, it's an
enormous effort to meet those current needs with a population
now of almost 6 billion. With a population of 8 or 9 or 10 or
12 billion people that's going to be that much harder; that's
one of the major problems. Associated with that is the problem
of growing food for those people. And the problem of
providing the water necessary to grow the food for that; I
think that's going to be a critical issue.

And third, as you point out, this issue of conflict. Much of
the water internationally is shared internationally. It
belongs to what we call an "international river basin," shared
by two or more people. And mechanisms for reducing conflicts
over water involve international water principles embodied,
for example, in the new convention on non-navigable use of
shared water courses that the UN approved this year, that
provide some general principles for how we ought to negotiate
and share international water resources. That's one mechanism
and another is specific treaties signed by nations that share
water resources. We have a treaty with Mexico that allocates,
in theory, the waters of the Colorado River. There are many
examples world wide. International principles and these
specific treaties have a mixed record at reducing the risks of
conflict over water resources and we need basically to get
better at negotiating joint management of water resources
institutions that can resolve conflicts over shared water
resources. And there was some discussion this morning about
the possibility of using the model in California, of CalFed,
where all of the parties, who have very different interests,
but in the long run who have an interest in seeing conflicts
over water resolved, come together to discuss them: that may
be the answer.

Jackson: Let me try one more question before we change
direction and any of you pick up on it. And that is simply,
global climate change is being increasingly factored into a
wide range of issues, what are scientists saying about the
potential impact of global climate change on fresh water
resources?

Miller: Well, there is some indication that we may get the
water in a different form, if you will. In California we think
normal is sort of that October through March is the water year
and that water is sort of evenly distributed and it is stored
in the snow pack and then we find out all of a sudden that a
storm can come along in January and deliver almost all of the
water to the state and destroy the snowpack at the same time -
- our system isn't designed for that. I don't think we know
what the full impact will be but we think we know that we may
see more volatile weather patterns. Whether it is going to be
warmer or colder is for the politicians to debate, but the
fact is that we may see more volatile weather patterns which
call into question the designs in various basins on how that
water is stored and utilized.

Jackson: This might be off the subject, but only slightly.
Earlier this week I moderated a panel for Vice President Al
Gore and FEMA on the prospects of El Nino. And the first
question that was thrown at me was, "What if it doesn't
happen?" To which I replied, "Isn't it better to be prepared
for that which doesn't occur, than ill prepared for that which
does happen?"

Miller: The interesting thing about that is that if you look
at the people who have to bet with real money, the reinsurance
industry, they're betting very heavily that it will happen,
and they're changing their manner of exposure worldwide based
upon this phenomena. So they're betting their shareholders'
money and their investors money and all the rest of it, based
upon the fact that they think there is something very real to
this.

Jackson: Now we're going to focus a bit more on three regions
of the world where fresh water issues and fresh water
conflicts are prominent: The Jordan River Basin in the Middle
East, the Pilcomayo River Basin, in South America, and
California, where we're going to talk about the San Francisco
Bay/Delta and the Colorado River. So we'll have three
presentations of precisely, if possible, five minutes each,
followed by a five-minute opportunity for the panelists to
sort of amplify on that presentation, perhaps by linking their
own experiences to those described in the presentation or by
asking questions of the particular presenter. After the three
10-minute presentation and comment periods we'll throw it open
for a general sort of synthesizing discussion from the panel
which will be followed by your written questions here in the
audience. So for the first presentation on the Jordan River
Basin, we have Peter Gleick of the Pacific Institute.
Gleick: Thank you. I'd actually like to start with my second
overhead instead of my first. As you might imagine,
explaining the water situation in the Middle East in five
minutes is somewhat akin to explaining the California water
situation in five minutes, which I leave to Lester to do.
First of all there -- Does it say "Critical Issues" at the
top? I've got the cheap seats over here.

Overhead operator: Yes.

Gleick: Okay.

There is a very long history of conflict in the Middle East.
And that's a conflict over religion, over ideology, over
borders and over water. We did a study at the Pacific
Institute looking at water-related conflicts in the Middle
East between 3,000 B.C. and 300 B.C. and there is quite a
remarkable history of conflicts over water in the legends and
the myths and the history of the Middle East.

One of the major characteristics is that every major river in
the region is shared internationally. The Nile is shared by 10
nations. The Tigris and the Euphrates are shared by Turkey and
Syria and Iraq -- three countries who have never been friends
in different combinations at different periods of time. The
Jordan River is shared by Syria and Jordan and Israel and
Lebanon and the Palestinians in the West Bank. Needless to say
there are some interesting political disputes going on among
those parties in different combinations at different times.
Populations in the region are growing very rapidly from
between two and almost four percent a year, which puts extreme
pressure and growing pressure on what the water resources
there are there. The water distribution is very uneven. This
is true worldwide. Certainly it is true in California. But it
is also true in the Middle East, ranging from between 300 and
well over 3,000 cubic meters of water per person, per year --
a standard measure of water availability in any region. Water
use is very uneven throughout the region, from about 170 cubic
meters per person per year to well over 2,500 cubic meters per
person per year -- for everything, for agriculture, for urban
use, for industrial use, for commercial use. And the truth is
it's actually even worse than that. There are parts of the
Gaza Strip -- there are individuals that get less than 170
cubic meters per person per year. There are enormous
constraints on what people can do with that little amount of
water.

First view graph. First overhead, please.

Now the problem is that the lack of water in the region is a
contributing obstacle to peace. There are many issues involved
in the peace talks in the Middle East, but water is a real
one. It is a separate track of the multilateral peace talks in
the Middle East and the shortage of water and the way the
water is used and the way the water is distributed contributes
to the lack of agreement over how to resolve conflict in the
Middle East. The lack of peace in the Middle East is an
obstacle to efficient sharing of water. It goes both ways. The
fact that there is not enough water the fact that it is
unevenly distributed and used, contributes to the tensions and
contributes as a major obstacle to a equitable solution to the
conflicts in the region. And as I mentioned, the current uses
of water are inefficient in many places and inequitable.
Sound a little like California?

The solutions are varied. First of all, I would argue joint
basin management of the shared water resources is absolutely
necessary. There's going to be no agreement on peace in the
Jordan Basin and on equitable sharing of water in the Jordan
Basin unless there is an agreement on how to jointly manage
the waters of the Jordan Basin. That means involving the
Syrians and the Lebanese and the Israelis and the Jordanians
and the Palestinians in discussions over sharing in
management, over sharing in oversight, over sharing in the
region.

Some progress has been made. The Jordanians and the Israelis
have signed a peace treaty that explicitly involves joint
management and sharing of water in the Jordan Basin. It is an
enormous step forward; implementing the peace treaty is
another issue. Reallocation of existing water uses is
necessary -- and again, think of California -- between
agriculture, between urban uses, between environmental uses.
Those three sectors in the Middle East have to discuss
together how to reallocate and how to share the water uses
there. Eighty percent of the water in the Middle East goes to
agriculture. Sound familiar, again? There's an enormous
discussion going on there about reallocating water from
agricultural uses to the cities, which are growing very
rapidly, like here. And that reallocation is going to continue
in the future.
Improvements in the efficiency of water use are needed.
Enormous progress in Israel and Jordan have been made in
increasing the efficiency of water use there. Drip irrigation
is very extensive. Urban water use is very efficient. But both
of those sectors still use water inefficiently. As efficient
as they are there is still enormous potential for additional
improvements in the efficiency of water use. There is enormous
progress being made in the reuse of water in Israel and
Jordan; less in other parts of the Basin. And there is some
talk that within 20 years the only water that is going to be
available for use in the agricultural sector is reclaimed
water, that's already been used in the industrial, in the
urban and in the residential sector.

Finally, it is possible that new supplies are needed. The
water availability in the Middle East is very limited. They
are much more water short than California and they are
discussing the possibilities of new supplies. But as you might
imagine, as is true here, new supplies are very expensive.
They are expensive economically and they are expensive
environmentally. And so whether or not new supplies will be
developed is still up in the air. There is talk about
desalination for very expensive high value uses. That may go
on, it may not. There is talk about bringing water in from
outside the region, like we do. Whether that happens or not is
still unresolved, I would argue. But those are all part of the
solutions being discussed. Let me stop there.

Jackson: Thank you. Does anyone wish to comment on that or
shall we move on, whichever you like.

Okay. Here's a presentation, a five-minute presentation I
hope from Oscar Natale of the National Institute for Water and
the Environment, the government of Argentina, on the Pilcomayo
River Basin of South America.

Oscar Natale: Thank you. The Pilcomayo River Basin project,
as it was said, is to be an example of how to deal with water
conflicts, or to prevent water conflicts through knowledge.
And this is the case and the idea when the National Argentina
Secretariat of Natural Resources and Sustainable Development
and Green Cross International signed an agreement to begin
this project. The first overhead.

Here we have the continent where the project is being
developed, that is South America. Second overhead. And the
Pilcomayo River Basin is within the LaPlata River Basin that
is shown here and it's a case of a basin shared by three
nations. The next one. Bolivia, Paraguay and Argentina are
countries shown here where most of the basin is developed in
what is called the "Upper Basin", within Bolivian territory,
and in the Andes Mountains at heights of 4,000 meters above
sea level, and then it drops to 400 meters in what is called
the Chaco area and drops finally into the Paraguay River,
entering in through this way into the La Plata River Basin.
The next one.

Here we have some characteristics of the Basin. The area of
the watershed is 68,000 square kilometers. Some typical
parameters like minimal annual discharge of 208 cubic meters
per second, a maximum amount of annual discharge minimum of
446 cubic meters per second. But then, in summer, you get
cases where you can have huge flows up to thousands of cubic
meters per second. The historical maximum has been 4,000 cubic
meters per second. And the particularity is that these drop
from 4,000 meters above sea level down into 400 meters. The
movement, the erosion from water, creates a huge input of
suspended solids into the lower basin, and this amount is in
the order of 135 million tons per year. The main water uses
of this basin is primarily for agricultural purposes, that is,
irrigation, both in the upper and lower basin. It is used as
a drinking water source for the Indian population. In the
Argentinean territory there are Guarani and Mataco populations
that are of the order of 18,000 inhabitants and they use this
as the drinking water source, drinking directly the water from
this river without any kind of treatment, and also using as
the main food source the fish species of the river, in
particular, the Savalo that is the most ubiquitous.

In the Bolivian territory one of the ancient and most
important uses of the water of the basin is for metal, for
mining activities, going back to the Spanish period. That is,
from the 16th Century until now, it has been evolving through
different mining and metallurgical processes, for getting gold
and silver, tin, lead, zinc, etc. These generate one of the
main water quality problems. The presence of heavy metals is
not only, of course, in the upper basin within the Bolivian
Territory, but also in the lower basin shared by Argentina and
Paraguay. Other water quality problems are related with, as I
said, the influence of suspended solids creating obstructions
in the lower basin and, of course, the entrance of loads of
municipal effluence without any kind of treatment, creating
sanitation problems. The following one.

In particular, this project will stress how to improve the
level of knowledge in relationship with the presence of heavy
metals in the basin that are coming, mainly, from the Potosi
area that is the upper branch of the Pilcomayo River and also
a series of rivers from the lower branch where last year an
accident happened in a mine called Porco, dropping about 300
cubic tons of tailings from a mine. This accident generated
attention from authorities of the governments of Paraguay and
Argentina and also from some provinces in Argentina that are
sharing this resource. Evidence of the presence of heavy
metals in this river is given through some data -- the
following one -- where you can find values of zinc, cadmium,
lead in the lower branch of this Pilcomayo River Basin after
the Porco accident, where you find huge amounts of
concentrations of these metals in sediments quite over some
international guidelines. This is also shown in the following
one, where you find also values for arsenic.
So the proposal is to implement a comparative trinational and
international project on risk and sustainability of water uses
assessment in this basin with the following objectives: to
develop and enforce agreements and to strengthen institutions
and programs related to water quality, sediment and aquatic
biota assessment, regulation and control in the Pilcomayo
River Basin; to implement clean mining and metallurgical
technologies in the Basin; to establish and finance a long-
term technical cooperation program that has both a horizontal
axis that is among the three parties or three countries
riparian of this Basin and a vertical one with the presence of
supporting international agencies like Green Cross
International in order to ensure the sustainable development
of the region and the multiple use of water resources in the
Basin; and finally, to design and establish, operate and
maintain a communication system and a contingency plan for
pollution events in the Pilcomayo River Basin.

These are the main objectives that are to be developed through
a two-year program through the participation of governmental
and nongovernmental organizations of these three parties and
international ones. Thank you.

Jackson: I noticed, Mr. Charrier, you're making notes. Would
you care to make any comment on what you've just heard?

Charrier: The comments I would like to highlight, in the
Pilcomayo River we have to face the issue of water quality.
In the Middle East we have also to face water quantity, and
these are two main parts of the program on water and is
certainly the reason why Green Cross has chosen to work on
these two regions -- the Middle East and the Pilcomayo.

Jackson: Thank you. Now a five-minute presentation from
Lester Snow, of the CalFed Bay/ Delta program -- California
issues, the San Francisco Bay/Delta and the Colorado River.

Lester Snow: Did you say five minutes or fifteen, I can't,
couldn't get that straight?

Jackson: We have all day -- until the water runs out.

Snow: Everybody up here says five. Can I have the first
slide up please. I was, after listening to Peter going to
declare at least we have not had open conflict on California
water issues and then I remembered a rich piece of Los
Angeles' history in the Owens Valley that I believe involved
significant amounts of dynamite in the cover of darkness, and
then a large militia, if I'm not mistaken.

To understand California's water problems and where I want to
head with the CalFed program, this is a basic fact, "Water
occurs where the people aren't." This is the basic rainfall
where we have sufficient rainfall to generate a renewable
water supply. This is where the people are located, the Bay
Area. . . Southern California. . . agriculture is in the brown
area. And not only do we have the displacement but then we
have a very irregular pattern of precipitation which we think
is getting worse. The way California has dealt with this in
the past is probably one of the most extensive and
sophisticated water systems in the world. Starting with some
of the cities, San Francisco and Los Angeles developing their
water supply delivery systems, the Colorado River Aqueduct, a
Federal project and State project that allowed water to be
moved from where it was to where it was needed, and to do that
to develop sophisticated reservoir systems to catch the water
when it's available and release it when it's needed.

I think to have a better understanding we have to understand
that we've had an incremental deterioration of the ecosystem
in the State of California, even before the water projects, as
far back as hydraulic mining that took place in the last
century. And then we had a significant effort at levy building
within the delta itself, where we were reclaiming lands that
were referred to as "swamps" back then, to make farmland that
significantly altered the landscape in terms of the ecosystem
and river function. Then we got into building dams, to
capture water, to generate power, to make California a
prosperous place.

Those systems have moved water all around this state for a
good many years to provide a lot of different kinds of
benefits to become the number one agricultural producer in the
United States. The Central Valley produces 45 percent of the
nation's fruits and vegetables, a major export of food to
other countries, and the rapid and significant urban growth.
And we have ended up, based on this water system, with a
trillion-dollar-a-year economy. We finally have gone over into
the trillion. That's what California has now. But at a cost.
As Congressman Miller has already indicated, a lot of
unintended consequences that have been most manifest in
deterioration of the ecosystem and environmental problems. We
also have seen significant flooding, as recently as February,
in terms of the interface between our floodways, our levies,
our ecosystem and where we choose to build houses.
The primary conflicts that we have seen in the system have
resulted in taking a different approach, the conflicts between
diversion of water and fisheries, between habitat and flood
protection, between water supply and the competing uses and
certainly water quality and land use.

These conflicts have focused mostly in the Bay/Delta system.
This is where the system comes together, 80% of the renewal
water supply. We've come and put the largest diversions in the
State of California in the south part of the delta to tap into
that system. The model that we've used for 20 years in
solving natural resources problems is political decisions that
have nothing to do with technical or legal reality, and that's
why we keep reinventing this. We call this model, "Legislate,
regulate, litigate." And we don't get the problem solved.

What we think we're trying to do, in the CalFed program, is
get these things together so we can find solutions that are
politically acceptable, legally, economically and
engineeringly sound. And the only way we do that is be getting
everybody engaged. That's the essence of what CalFed is. Go
ahead with the next.

Let me start first with a formal CalFed coalition of state and
federal agencies that used to fight over these issues, now
brought together to form an institution to start moving
forward. But most important, what this represents is bringing
together the stakeholders that used to sponsor those pieces of
legislation and litigation, to try to come up with a solution
that meets everybody's needs. Simply, the Mission Statement is
to restore ecological health and improve water management for
all the beneficial uses of the system. Everybody needs to move
forward together.

The general approach is collaborative and open, almost to the
point of boring people to tears. We want everybody involved
in every aspect of the program; we want no surprises. We want
an ecosystem-based approach, not a species du jour approach,
to dealing with environment problems. No prohibited options,
no preferred options. We need to solve this problem.

Four problem areas: ecosystem health, water quality, water
supply reliability, levy system integrity. We want to find
solutions that are win-win. Not fix an ecosystem problem by
simply taking water away from somebody else. Define
strategies that address all four areas. We've developed five
basic components: an ecosystem program that is designed to
restore habitat, wetlands, and riparian corridors; water use
efficiency, to make sure we're using water efficiently in a
system; a system to improve levy stability and actually
integrate ecosystem into it; water quality; and then a change
in the way that we store water and move water around the
system. That comprises the basic alternatives that we're
evaluating. We currently have twelve.

Let me conclude with this quick observation, by the Contra
Costa Times, from the Congressman's district, if I recall. A
simple straightforward observation and it is why the
stakeholders are engaged.

"If we don't pay to fix this problem and fix it right, we're
going to pay in unintended ways -- loss of jobs, loss of
farmlands, continued deterioration of the environment." So
the whole program is based on getting the stakeholders at the
table, coming up with strategies that make everybody move
forward together. Thank you.
Jackson: Would any of you care to comment on any of the
presentations that you've heard thus far? And the first hand
to go up we haven't heard from, Peter Moyle.

Peter Moyle: Thank you. I'd just like to back up what Lester
is saying and refer back to some of the other things that have
been said here. First off, these things are necessary because
climate change is a reality with less predictability in our
water supplies. Also we do have to recognize that big water
projects are just not going to happen anymore, in California,
at least not on the scale that they were in the past. So this
really does generate a need for really creative and long-term
solutions to our water problems. And the best solutions are
those that improve the situation for humans while also
improving the situations for aquatic organisms. For example,
one of the really large-scale kinds of solutions that people
have been thinking about is the idea of recreating our flood
plains in the Central Valley. This can allow more storage in
the reservoirs upstream and the existing reservoirs, while
providing much needed habitat for fish and wildlife. So it's
big, creative solutions to these problems that are going to be
needed and I think the CalFed process is one that is hopefully
coming up with these solutions.

Jackson: By the way, before we proceed to general discussion
or any further with our general discussion, may I ask audience
members to do as a couple have already done, pass your
questions to the end of the aisle and we'll collect them and
we'll try to get to as many of those as possible. We'll have
staff members collect them.

Let me ask. . . The finger went up from Thomas Graff.

Thomas Graff: Quick observation. This year we celebrate the
seventy-fifth anniversary of the signing of the Colorado River
Compact and we're just starting to figure out how we're going
to allocate California's share that was provided for in that
compact. It's also the fifth anniversary, as was mentioned
earlier by Congressman Miller, of his bill, his and Senator
Bradley's bill, and we've got a long way to go in implementing
that statute, although I would argue, maybe slightly contrary
to what Lester indicated earlier, that the Bay/Delta Accord
and the proposition last year that we all supported
cooperatively would never have happened without the incentives
created by the passage of Miller-Bradley. Miller-Bradley also
provided the opportunity for urban Southern California to
transfer water from the Federal supply in Northern California
that did not exist prior to the passage of that bill and
created several different mechanisms for restoration, both
financial and operational, that still have a ways to go in
implementation.

Jackson: Congressman Miller, any comment on that?

Miller: I like that.

Jackson: He likes it. Let me turn then to some of the
incoming questions, at random, if any of you would care to
jump in and respond. Here's one...Well actually, it's aimed at
three of you -- Mr. Gleick, Mr. Natale and Mr. Snow. "To what
extent is there movement away from subsidized, politicized
water allocation and towards true cost market-based water
allocation in all the three areas we discussed?"

Gleick: Well, we get right into it, don't we? This, of
course, in my opinion is one of the most difficult problems in
the water area. And it's difficult in the Middle East and it's
difficult here. The truth is there are certain questions that
it's very difficult to address in public in the water policy
debate: agricultural subsidies; pricing of water; allocations
in water rights. It's a political issue, it's a personal
issue, it's a very difficult one. If we don't address it
we're not going to solve the water problems. In the Middle
East, the Palestinians think the problem is one of water
rights. The Israelis think it is one of water supply -- let's
make the pie bigger rather than discuss reallocating the pie.
And that perception, those perceptions, are some of the most
difficult problems in the Middle East, and frankly in
California: the question of water pricing in agriculture and
the question of water rights and a question of ground water
management. There are a certain number of issues that, if not
completely taboo, have not been adequately addressed and
resolved in California and make solving the long-term problems
in California, I think, very difficult.

Jackson: Mr. Snow.
Snow: I certainly would agree with Peter's last statement.
These issues are very difficult and I think we are addressing
them incrementally. I think we're getting into the pricing
issue in two fashions within the CalFed program. One is the
principle of beneficiary pays as we modify this system and if
we make water supplies available from that, that water should
carry its full cost to whoever is the beneficiary, which is
not necessarily the way we have done it in the past.

The second, though, is increased reliance on the water market.
By providing those types of economic incentives we believe
over the long run that water will start coming closer to its
true value as it's represented in the system. So these things
that are so ingrained over a hundred years period of time,
it's not that you can pass one policy and make a change. We
think you have to approach it incrementally in dealing with
new water supplies and how they're priced and then also
dealing with market incentives, we think is the way to start.

Jackson: Let me repeat the question for our visitor from
Argentina. To what extent is there movement away from
subsidized, politicized, water allocation and towards true
cost, market-based water allocation?

Natale: My experience in Argentina, I think it might apply to
other developing countries, is pricing is not the usual way
of, let's say, dealing with the scarce resource, despite the
fact that it's in some way illogical. In Argentina, water,
even in areas where it is scarce for purposes of drinking
water supply, is free and that criteria is always present.
The only usage that has some kind of pricing system is related
with agricultural use. The price I'm referring to is the
price, the free price of the resource, not of course the price
of providing drinking water supply. That is to say there
isn't any kind of price paid by the company that is intaking
water for giving the service.

Jackson: Thank you. Here's another question for the entire
panel or anyone thereon. Which will suffer greater from water
scarcity, agriculture or public drinking supplies, and what
mechanism can we use to balance the two? Anyone care to
respond to this? Congressman Miller.

Miller: Well I think if I might take a stab related to the
other question. Historically, we have looked at these issues,
certainly in California and probably most of the western
United States, as a contest between drinking water supplies or
city use versus agricultural use. The question that CalFed is
struggling with is if you place a real value on the water, to
what extent do uses change for other reasons without creating
a winner or a loser? You know, there are some economists that
argue that if you really had a free and open market in water
in California you'd probably have a surplus of water. If the
real value was placed on it and probably that real value might
not be $400 an acre foot, it might $100 an acre foot or
something less than that. And right now we don't know the
answer to that. Part of this process is trying to see if you
can minimize the so-called "losers" in this system as this
particular state continues to grow and have increased demands
because 10 million people move here every decade or show up as
births and can you work out a mechanism for allowing some
flexibility in that water supply to grow in the future without
just deciding that you've got to get rid of agriculture or
you've got to get rid of this use or that use. I think that's
the question of whether or not the market can respond in that
fashion.

Jackson: Another question from the audience. Do you truly
believe Third World countries would put water for plants and
animals before water for food production and people? Does
that happen?

Moyle: I can respond to that in part. Usually not. And
certainly, historically in California that has not been the
case. There are some attempts to at least level the playing
field a bit for the fish and wildlife. But I think the best
response to that is to say that the best way we can handle our
water problems is to make sure these systems are healthy
because then they'll provide healthy water for people as well.
Often healthy ecosystems are generally compatible with solving
water supply problems.

Larry Farwell: In South Africa they've actually made their
two priorities basic water for human needs and a sustainable
environment. Even though they have 14 million people without
access to running water -- that's 40% of the country -- they
have recognized a sustainable environment as the basic element
of a functioning society.
Jackson: Which leads me to an interesting question from the
audience. It reads: Human population impacts this Earth
through it's use of resources and generation of waste
pollution. Since humans seemed to have circumvented the
predator-prey relationship that every other living creature is
subject to, should we not be addressing human population
growth? Doesn't the increased availability of water simply
imply continued human population growth at the expense of the
environment?

Gleick: Population is without a doubt a critical factor here.
The more people you have the more water you have to provide.
You don't solve the water problem by solving the population
problem; we're not going to be able to do that. I guess what
I'm arguing is we need to address both of the problems at the
same time. The population is growing and it's going to
continue to grow. I think there is a responsibility to meet
people's basic needs for water. And their basic needs for
water are well below the total amount of water people tend to
use. I think we can meet basic needs for water. And one finds
that when you meet basic needs for water, in fact, peoples'
well being improves and population rates drop. So there is a
connection.

Jackson: Mr. Charrier.

Charrier: Yes, just to add some on the water. Certainly
water has to be considered as "goods," and not just a gift
from God. And in that case we have another relationship
between man and nature. And it certainly is a reason why for
many, many years and destinies of people waste of water and
with a poor management.

Jackson: Then I think this question, this follow-up question
should be for you, if I may, from the audience. Treaties,
international agreements and local allocations are obviously
not adequate to solve conflicts at any level. Is Green Cross
International working towards creating a worldwide
distribution agreement?

Charrier: I think it is not in the power of an NGO, even if
it is an important NGO. We have to use tools, international
tools, international laws, as the one adopted this year by the
United Nations, and to implement and to help to solve
problems at the local level and regional level. What we have
to keep in mind is that one way to solve water conflict is
that through the reduction in sovereignty between the
countries. As international law moves countries to decrease
the sovereignty, that's the wave of the future, and also a
really important orientation. The problems of water
management will be solved at the regional level.

Jackson: I know a question that I would love to conjure up and
I'd love a reaction from each member of the panel. And that
is you know all the problems, you study the problems from
different perspectives. Are you optimists or pessimists about
the future of water and the world's population. Mr. Moyle, can
we start with you sir?
Moyle: It depends on which morning you're talking about. I'm
fundamentally an optimist, I have to be, but sometimes it gets
very depressing when you think of the way human populations
are increasing and the way we're handling water supplies, in
general, around the world. But, on the other hand, the CalFed
process is certainly an optimistic scenario, right now. There
is no guarantee it's going to work, but at least we're doing
the right things. And we heard a presentation this morning by
Aaron Wolf of the University of Alabama that really indicated
that treaties over water are surprisingly common and
surprisingly resilient, so it indicates that, at least, when
it comes to water conflicts, humans do want to get out there
and really solve the problems before going to war.

Jackson: Oscar Natale.

Natale: Well in fact, in our region, I think we have to be
quite optimistic. Since, for example, the 60s or 70s, in the
La Plata River Basin, there were conflicts over, for example,
the development of hydropower generation with dams in the Paru
(sic) River in Brazil and also some in the Uruguay River,
creating quite a stress among these countries. At this time,
let's say, the action of exchange of information, related with
the uses of water and, of course, for example, in the case of
flooding, being related with the El Nino event -- at this time
there is a continuous flow of information from the upper basin
to the lower basin. So, I'm possibly in favor of saying that
we can be optimists.

Jackson: Let me jump around if I may. You've been rather
quiet, Larry Farwell. Are you an optimist or a pessimist?

Farwell: I have two responses. One is that when you ask the
new government in South Africa what their attitude is on
solving the problems which are enormous, they are optimistic.
They say, "We'll solve them because we have to." And in the
sort term I think that's probably true. In the long-term I'm
just hoping that this problem isn't like the frog in the cold
water with the temperature slowing rising. And as I think
Bertrand has pointed out, the pot we're in is already fairly
warm with billions of people without adequate water and
millions of children a year dying, so it's an interesting
question, Michael.

Jackson: David Kennedy, do you have an interesting answer?

David Kennedy: I would characterize myself as hopeful. I'm
involved in various water conflicts, I have been for a long
time. In fact, I'm going to make a comment now that I didn't
get an opportunity when we met with President Gorbachev
earlier and he came in with Congressman Miller. I thought it
would have been interesting for the President to know that not
only the Congressman has been involved in these issues for a
long time, but his father before him for a very long time was
a very well known and active state senator who was involved in
some of these very issues. So, I think it is an indication
that one thing you need here is a lot of patience and hanging
in there. But as I see these issues I see some that are
getting resolved. I think the most significant thing is the
number of people who are working in good faith to try and
bring them to resolution. I think there's growing recognition
is that the problems generally won't be solved unilaterally
but by bringing all of the interests that have a reason to be
there together. To bring them into the discussion and try to
resolve them in a comprehensive manner. So overall I'm
hopeful.

Jackson: And to your left, Attorney Graff, are you an optimist
or a pessimist?

Graff: Well, I think with President Gorbachev on the panel
you can't not be an optimist. On the other hand, you know, he
did an amazing thing and changed the world but at least some
of the problems that he and others addressed just a decade ago
will reemerge in different forms and different people are
going to have to tackle them all over again, so I guess I'm
both.

Jackson: Otherwise you'd feel you were wasting your time.
John Wodraska.

Wodraska: Well I'll pick up on a comment that Tom just made.
I'm optimistic that on a case-by-case basis we're applying
resources and one way or another making progress. I'm
discouraged that the institutional structures we have in place
to solve these problems were not as creative in that sense. I
think what President Gorbachev did in the Soviet Union,
thinking outside the box, really changed the way we approach
the problems. Perhaps in resource management, particularly
water resource management, we're getting pretty effective at
asking the right questions. The questions that came from the
audience are all the ones we've debated, but we don't seem to
have a new approach about how we're going to come to grips
with some of these really fundamental issues. Is water a
commodity or is there a public trust, a stewardship
responsibility? Are we going to rely on just pricing to deal
with it? How does the environment fare in that kind of world
and how are we going to come to grips with population growth
and are we going to use that?. And we don't have any
institutional mechanism in our society even to have these
debates to bring something to closure.

Jackson: Let me take the same question but change it very
slightly, Lester Snow. Ten years from now, will things be
worse or better?

Snow: No, they will be better, particularly -- I guess I have
a California perspective, since I'm immersed in that, so I
guess I'm responding more with optimism from the California
standpoint. But the reason that I'm confident about that is
twofold, or maybe more than that, maybe multifaceted here in a
sense that we have a lot of people engaged in this have not
been involved in the water issues previously. We have the
business community in the State of California involved. We
have politicians willingly getting involved and in the past
they begrudgingly got involved in water issues. We actually
know what a lot of the solutions are. And I guess the other
thing, and maybe this is a negative way to put it, but again,
California has a trillion-dollar-a-year economy. If we aren't
willing to invest to solve these problems when we know the
solutions, then we deserve to have what we get out of that.
But I'm optimistic that the solutions are there. We have the
commitment. We simply need to move forward and try to dodge
the bullets from the minor skirmishes we have along the way.
Ten years from now I think we're going to have a significantly
different system, a different way of doing business.

Jackson: Let me pick up on those two words, "minor
skirmishes." And as we are running out of time I do want to
get to the final, three, minor or major skirmishes in the
Middle East. Peter.

Gleick: Minor, in the Middle East.

Jackson: So that means they can be resolved.

Gleick: I'm optimistic. I think California is going to be
fine. I think we have the resources broadly speaking. I'm
encouraged by the level of cooperation in the Middle East over
water.

Jackson: Really.

Gleick: And I think mechanisms will be developed to really
reduce the risk of conflict there. I'm encouraged by what is
going on in South Africa. I'm encouraged by, as someone said,
the number of people involved internationally, on water. I'm
not encouraged, however, for much of the rest of the world, in
the developing world. I mean, the truth is there are three
billion people who don't have a water system comparable to
that that we found in ancient Rome. And that population is
growing; it's not shrinking. And we're falling behind with
those people. The 250 million cases of water-related diseases
and the five to ten million water-related deaths worldwide --
those are preventable, but we're not doing a good job in that
part of the world and I'm not optimistic -- not that
optimistic about that.

Jackson: Then let me turn to our Congressman and our visitor
from Geneva and ask them to sort of sum it up. Are you
optimistic, are you pessimistic. Do you like what you've heard
and where do we go from here? Let's start with Congressman
Miller.

Miller: Well, I'm optimistic. Certainly about California I'm
optimistic because I think Lester said it right. It's already
better because there are people who are sitting at the table
where decisions are being made that 25 years ago and 50 years
ago either didn't exist or they certainly wouldn't have been
allowed in the room. A lot of these decisions were made in my
father's front room, many, many years ago and it was a very
small group of people that were cutting up the water pie. And
the decisions that called those decisions into play were made
in Los Angeles by even a smaller group of people; that was a
reaction. Today, you can't have that kind of meeting and
today you can't bolt from CalFed and say, "Well, I'm just
going to go it on my own." That's a real difference.

I think I'm optimistic, too, because hopefully, this process
unlocks our thinking from the past. Because most of the
decisions and the direction we were going are very old
decisions that still have effect today. And I think part of
the problem that you have in other parts of the world is that
treaties reflected a different period of time. One of the
things that Mr. Natale said was that this is about applying
knowledge. You have to show people that have water and are
using it in a certain way that they may be able to get the
same result but use that water and maybe less of it, in some
cases, in a different way. But they can get the same result.
That's what we've learned from our friends in Israel, and
certainly the Mexican tomato farmers in Baja have learned that
as they've sent their foremen to Israel to learn about
irrigation. So there is a huge amount of opportunity out
there, but we have to let go of the past. But in the past you
made the decision sort of at ten paces with six-shooters. Or
you went and you figured out how you could influence the
Chairman of the House Agriculture Committee to get the same
result. Today, you've got to do it in a cooperative forum and
you cannot lock people out of the room, which then immediately
changes how you think about the problem. Because somebody
said, "What about this point of view?" Well, before, that
point of view was never in the room. And I think that's the
optimism.

I think that, when you look at what President Gorbachev is
trying to do here, by focusing this kind of international
attention on some of these basins, you put a lot of sunlight
in the room and other people get to now come in and
participate, whether they are indigenous people or whether
they are in the environmental community or the business
community. You know, for the most part, California water
decisions were made without the sort of the Fortune 500 people
even thinking about it. The last time we made a big decision
of the CVPIA, they knew the outcome they wanted in terms of
what they thought was going to be helpful in changing the
economy of this state. So, I think there are a lot of reasons
to be hopeful. Obviously, cross-borders are much more
difficult. But even there you have people who are locked into
past practices and believe that that's the future. And the
knowledge has got to break them from that trap, because it is
really, essentially, a trap.

Jackson: Congressman, thank you. Final word sir, it's yours.

Charrier: I am definitely a pessimist because the situation is
worse than we can imagine. If you remember the curve I showed
you on the population growth, the speed of the scale is very
huge and we have never been faced with this situation in the
past -- never. And the countries achieving economic growth of
2, 3 points per year, that is made for 25 years, GNP doubles.
We are faced an incredible situation. And to adapt our
institutions it takes many, many years. If you remember at a
time for each international convention it takes at least 10
years to be able to be adopted and at least five years to be
implemented. We are in a very difficult situation around the
world if we continue to think just about GNP growth and never
how to share the produce, how to eradicate the poverty.

Jackson: Thank you all very much for your participation and
your patience, I've been honored to be here. Thank you.



Biographies of Participants

PRESIDENT MIKHAIL GORBACHEV

BERTRAND CHARRIER is the Executive Director of Green Cross
International, the environmental organization founded by
President Gorbachev in 1993. Prior to joining Green Cross, Mr.
Charrier worked on environmental issues for seventeen years with
Jacques Cousteau. He is based in Geneva.

LARRY FARWELL is a psychologist who has been professionally
active in water conservation efforts on the south coast of
California and statewide since 1986. He also has advised the
governments of Canada, Spain, and South Africa on water
conservation matters in recent years.

DAVID FREEMAN is the new general manager of the Los Angeles
Department of Water and Power having taken that post in fall,
1997. A pioneer of energy conservation efforts, Mr. Freeman
most recently oversaw the power deregulation program in
California.

PETER GLEICK is Co-founder and President of the Pacific
Institute for Studies in Development, Environment, and Security.
He is one of the leading experts on environmental security
problems and international fresh water resources, including
water conflicts in the Middle East and California.

TOM GRAFF is an attorney with the Environmental Defense Fund, an
environmental organization headquartered in Oakland. Mr. Graff
founded EDF's California office in 1971.

DAVID KENNEDY has been the Director of the California Department
of Water Resources since 1983, appointed successively by
Governors Deukmajian and Wilson. His department, among many
tasks, runs the State Water Project.

CONGRESSMAN GEORGE MILLER has represented the seventh district
of California, which rings the San Francisco Bay/Delta, since
1975. He is the senior Democratic member of the House Committee
on Resources, which he formerly chaired, and is the leading
environmentalist in Congress.

PETER MOYLE is a Professor of Wildlife, Fish, and Conservation
Biology at the University of California at Davis. Dr. Moyle is
widely recognized as the foremost authority on California fish
species, particularly those in the San Francisco Bay/Delta
estuary.

OSCAR NATALE is the Coordinator of the Toxic Substances and
Water Quality Program at the National Institute of Water and the
Environment, Government of Argentina, Buenos Aries.

LESTER SNOW is the Executive Director of the CalFed Bay/Delta
Program, which is seeking long-term solutions to water problems
associated with the San Francisco Bay/Delta. He formerly was
General Manager of the San Diego Water Authority.

JOHN "WOODY" WODRASKA is the General Manager of the Metropolitan
Water District of Southern California, one of the world's
largest water purveyors. Prior to joining MWD, he spent 19
years with the South Florida Water Management District, the last
seven as Executive Director.

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